▲ Deep ReadThe Federal Reserve has raised US interest rates for the first time in three years, a unanimous decision made despite direct opposition from the incumbent president. This move forc…
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Predictive AnalysisForeign holdings of US Treasuries have reached their lowest point in nine months, driven by reductions from France and Canada. This shift prompts questions about whether it signals a strategic move away from dollar assets or a response to domestic liquidity pressures.
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Predictive AnalysisThe US Federal Reserve has initiated a new rate-hiking cycle, a move that redefines the global monetary landscape. This pivot away from prolonged accommodation will test the resilience of economies and financial markets worldwide.
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Trending GlobalDespite bond traders assigning a 94% probability to a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, this consensus may obscure the nuanced economic landscape influencing policymakers. The market's conviction rests heavily on recent inflation metrics, yet alternative readings suggest a more complex picture for future monetary tightening.
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Strategic ForesightA structural shift in global interest rates, potentially pushing 10-year US Treasury yields above 5%, would necessitate a profound recalibration across financial markets. This analysis explores the underlying forces and competing scenarios that could define the next decade for sovereign debt.
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Virtual RoundtableWhile some market participants express confidence in the economy's ability to withstand incremental rate increases, others warn of latent vulnerabilities. Our panel explores the competing interpretations of current market strength and the potential impact of a 25 basis-point Fed hike.
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Trending GlobalGlobal financial markets, having navigated a period of relative summer calm, are bracing for a resurgence of volatility. This anticipated shift, driven by interest rate pressures, fiscal concerns, and geopolitical instability, has ignited debate among analysts regarding its underlying nature.
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Strategic ForesightNavigating the next seven years requires understanding the plausible evolutions of monetary policy. We outline three divergent scenarios for interest rates and quantitative policy through 2030, each with distinct implications for asset classes.
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Virtual RoundtableWhile an outlier, the Nomura scenario of three consecutive Bank of Japan rate hikes by December highlights the market's evolving expectations for monetary policy. This roundtable explores the underlying conditions and potential global ramifications of such an aggressive shift.
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Predictive AnalysisGlobal bond markets are experiencing a significant downturn, distinct from the inflation-driven rout of 2022. This current adjustment appears to be a structural recalibration of long-term interest rate expectations, rather than merely a cyclical response.
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